A newly released survey from Quinnipiac University indicates President Biden holds the lead against former President Donald Trump if the two were to face each other in the 2024 presidential race. Biden currently enjoys a 50% favor among voters, compared to Trump’s 44%, signaling a shift from the neck-and-neck 47% to 46% standings noted in December.
The detailed findings highlight a pronounced support for Biden with a 58% majority among female voters, 52% by independents, and 62% held by college-educated voters, suggesting these groups could be pivotal in the upcoming election.
“The recent change shown in female voters’ preference particularly stands out,” commented Tim Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac, noting how women have contributed to changing Biden’s position from a tie to a lead over Trump.
While Trump has the edge with male voters at 53%, his attraction fizzles to 40% with independents. Even with the potential introduction of third-party candidates, Biden retains the upper hand over Trump. In this scenario, Biden garners 39% of voter preference, only slightly above Trump’s 37%, followed by independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 14%, Cornel West at 3%, and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 2%.
Hispanic voters appear to lean toward Trump, who holds a modest lead at 47% over Biden’s 45%. However, Biden has a substantial lead among black voters, where Trump registers only 16% support.
While this poll presents Biden with a favorable position, it stands as an outlier when taken against the backdrop of the RealClearPolitics average, which has Trump leading with 47.1% to Biden’s 44.6%.
In another hypothetical matchup, Trump’s Republican competitor, Nikki Haley, could potentially outperform Biden by five points (47%-42%) in a two-way race. However, her advantage dips when third-party candidates are factored into the equation, the Quinnipiac survey indicates.
Data from recent surveys demonstrate fluctuating voter preferences, affirming the dynamic nature of the political landscape as the 2024 elections approach.