DOES ‘GUILTY’ VERDICT CHANGE THE RACE? Former President Donald Trump’s supporters, nearly all of the Republican base plus millions who see Trump as a better choice for the White House than President Joe Biden, will see the guilty verdict against Trump in New York as deeply unfair and deeply politicized. But Alvin Bragg, the Democrat who was elected district attorney in Manhattan on a vow to pursue Trump, had the authority to bring the case. Juan Merchan, the Biden donor who served as the judge in the case, had the authority to run the trial as he saw fit. And the jury, drawn from a borough of New York that went for Biden by 84.5% to 14.5% in the 2020 presidential election, had the authority to convict Trump.
So the trial is over. Ahead lies an appeal, which many experts think will have a good chance of overturning the verdict. But that won’t happen until next year, when the 2024 election is long over. In the immediate future, Trump will be handled as a new convict, under supervision and facing sentence in perhaps three months. Many commentators suggest it is unlikely he will go to jail, but the fact is, he has been convicted of 34 felony counts, each carrying a maximum prison sentence of four years.
The political fallout of the verdict is already underway. Political observers have known for a long time that one of the greatest benefits of the trial for Democrats is the ability to refer to Trump as a “convicted felon.” That has already started on cable TV and social media. It will only accelerate in the future.
The bigger question is what will happen in the minds of the voters who might be inclined to vote for him but are disturbed by the conviction. Nearly all Republicans believe Trump was unfairly pursued and unfairly prosecuted. They have said for a long time that it doesn’t matter what the verdict is — they will still support Trump. They put the Manhattan prosecution in the long line of what they see as unfair treatment of Trump, beginning with the Russia investigation. For them, this really isn’t anything new, and it certainly won’t change their determination to vote for Trump. Indeed, it might energize them to support Trump even more fervently.