INTO THE DUMPER

Nearly identical percentages of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump (46%) and Kamala Harris (44%) favorably in Gallup’s latest Sept. 3-15 poll, during which the candidates debated for the first time. Both candidates, however, have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings. Trump’s unfavorable rating is seven percentage points higher than his favorable score, and Harris’ is 10 points higher.

Harris’ bump in favorability after her unexpected nomination as the Democratic presidential nominee has moderated somewhat, while Trump’s favorability is up five points since last month, returning to the level he was at in June.

Despite the overall negative tilt in favorability, both candidates enjoy nearly unanimous positive ratings from their own party faithful and negligible positivity from the opposing party. While majorities of independents view Trump and Harris unfavorably, the former president holds a favorability edge over the current vice president with the group — 44% vs. 35%, respectively.

n the six consecutive presidential cycles starting in 1992, at least one of the candidates, and often both, received positive ratings from a majority of Americans in September of the election year and up until the election. However, since 2016 — when Trump and Hillary Clinton were the least favorably viewed presidential candidates in the history of Gallup polling — less than half of U.S. adults have rated the candidates positively in the summer and fall of the election year.

Trump is currently viewed better than he was at a similar point in the 2020 and 2016 campaigns, while Harris’ positive rating is on par with Biden’s in 2020 and well above Clinton’s in 2016. Beyond Trump, Clinton and Biden, only George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Mitt Romney in 2012 earned a favorable score of less than 50%.

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