Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern.
After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised by then-President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020, Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another election night surprise.
They hope that Harris can overperform the polls herself by driving young voters and Black and Latino voters to the polls in big numbers, but acknowledge that whether a larger-than-expected pro-Harris coalition emerges is an untested hypothesis.
“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said when asked whether he’s worried pollsters may be undercounting Trump’s support in his home state.
Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris with small but consistent leads in three crucial states that make up the “blue wall”: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), who represents the swing state of Georgia, said it’s impossible to know who’s ahead at this point because many polls show Harris and Trump running neck and neck, within the margin of error.
“We know this election is going to be close. It’s going to be close in the battleground states, including Georgia, which is why I’m doing everything I can to make sure we put Georgia in our column,” he said. “The only poll that matters is Nov. 5, right?