Wrong & Wronger: Why The Pollsters Blew It Again

In a triumphant return to the White House, Donald Trump celebrated his victory after a hard-fought campaign, first against incumbent Joe Biden and later Kamala Harris, who stepped in as the Democratic candidate when Biden withdrew. Addressing a crowd at his election night watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump vowed to lead America into a “bigger, better, bolder, richer, safer, and stronger” future. “I will not let you down,” he assured his supporters, who erupted into applause and cheers as Fox News confirmed his win.
The room was filled with both joy and emotion, with one supporter pointing to the screen and exclaiming, “That’s God!” according to reports from the New York Post. World leaders quickly extended their congratulations, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, marking an international reaction to Trump’s return to power.
In the lead-up to election night, however, many had placed their bets on Kamala Harris as the likely winner. Allan Lichtman, a historian known for his accurate election predictions, had suggested that Harris had a strong chance to win, calling her a “path-breaking” figure who might usher in a new era in American politics. Similarly, The Simpsons, a show with an uncanny record of predictive plotlines, seemed to hint at Harris’s victory, with many fans interpreting a scene from a 2000 episode—showing Lisa Simpson dressed in a purple suit with pearls—as a sign that Harris would take the White House.
One of the biggest surprises came from the Iowa opinion poll by the Des Moines Register/Selzer, considered one of the nation’s most accurate polling sources. The poll had indicated a possible Harris win in Iowa—a forecast that proved inaccurate as Trump claimed victory in the state as well.