Hedge fund manager and investor Ray Dalio thinks a new American civil war is possible. He gives it a 35% or 40% chance of happening. But it won’t be a shooting war, he says. Instead, it will manifest itself in geographical relocation. “People move to different states that are more aligned with what they want, and they don’t follow the decisions of federal authorities of the opposite political persuasion,” Dalio told the Financial Times.
However likely you believe Dalio’s prediction to be, when it comes to political beliefs, Americans do seem to be letting their U-Hauls do their talking. It’s been a truism for decades now: Americans are fleeing states intransigent in their progressivism and relocating to states more protective of freedom, economic and otherwise. While a direct transference from blue to red is difficult to prove, it is undeniable that the blue states are shrinking and red states are burgeoning.
The latest Census Bureau statistics underline the point. Five of the top 10 fastest-growing states by percentage from July 2022 to July 2023 were solid conservative states: South Carolina, Florida, Texas, Idaho, and North Carolina. Include in that number Tennessee and Utah, also among the top 10, and Americans’ movement is definitely red-tinged.
As for where these domestic refugees are from, that’s also easy. They’re leaving New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
The largest population loser, though, is that big, beautiful state out on the Left Coast: California. Big companies fleeing the coast make headlines, and Tesla’s relocation to Texas is only the latest splash in what has become a splash pool of departure. Also fleeing the Golden State are heavy hitters Oracle, Hewlett-Packard, Charles Schwab, and others — 85 companies employing 100 or more left the state between 2020 and April 2023; 53 headquarters have left the Bay Area since 2020.
Celebrities filter away from the sun and the sand at a regular rate, with Kirk Cameron being only the latest glitterati finding the spotlight of the Other 47 more congenial. He joins a lengthening roll of A-listers (and B- and C-listers) fleeing Hollyweird for the saner climes of Texas and Tennessee — Mark Wahlberg, Ryan Gosling, Eva Mendes, Sylvester Stallone, Katherine Heigl, Glen Powell, and Emma Stone, to name a few.