The most recent data on the fertility rate (the average number of children born to each woman) was 1.62 in 2023. The CBO projects that it will slightly decline to 1.60 for the balance of the forecast period. However, it warns that the rate could go even lower. A fertility rate of about 2.1 is necessary to have a stable population.
The CBO breaks down the fertility rate between women born in the U.S. and those who have emigrated here. I was surprised that there is relatively little difference, with women born here having a rate of 1.56 and immigrants only slightly higher at 1.88 – both still well below the replacement rate.
As a result of the lower fertility rate, the CBO now projects that natural population growth (births in excess of deaths) will go negative in 2033. We have barely been staying positive for the last several years, adding about 500,000 new native-born citizens each year. By 2055, the CBO expects that the U.S. will have about 800,000 more deaths each year than births.
The wild card, however, is immigration. The CBO estimates that over the last four years, the U.S. population has increased by about 10 million due to immigration. Roughly 3 million came through the regular immigration process, legally obtaining the right to move to this country. The remaining 7 million came illegally or came claiming asylum and were released pending an adjudication of their claim.