It’s no big secret that the cost of attending a four-year college or university in the United States is out of control. It’s almost gravity defying how the cost of college has increased relative to regular inflation over the past twenty years. In fact, more than 500 nonprofit private colleges have shut down in the last decade according to the Wall Street Journal, which was “three times what it was in the decade prior.”
The news is about to get worse, and there is a stern warning announcement coming from the pilot in the cockpit. 2025 is going to have a lot of turbulence followed by potentially weekly plane crashes of colleges and universities who can no longer afford to open their doors. This new reality is the ultimate law of supply and demand and families in America are voting with their feet.
Trend experts have new terminology they call the “enrollment cliff.” The number of students enrolled in degree-granting colleges and universities fell by 15% from 2010 to 2021 and only 62% of high school seniors in the U.S. immediately go on to college right now.
That’s a stark contrast to almost fifteen years ago when the number was 68% in 2010, according to government data. Many of the students who opt out of a postsecondary education are low-income students, but even those with means are beginning to choose alternatives.
We’ve also seen a spike in the competition for state colleges and universities where parents can enjoy in-state tuition and other possible grant programs offered for only in-state students.
Beyond the fact that some students are taking certification courses versus going to college, some are entering the workplace and some are considering alternative career paths, we are experiencing a record low number of new babies in the United States which will have a long-term impact on the shrinking enrollment for colleges and universities.