In 2016, few saw the collapse of the Democrats’ “blue wall” in the Midwest. In 2020, they hailed its return in Joe Biden’s narrow win as a sign that Hillary Clinton’s failure had been an anomaly and not a political realignment.
This cycle, not only has the worry returned, now everyone can see it coming. Even Democrats, according to NBC News:
Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan. Those people still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory.
Even this soft-peddles the reality at the moment. In 2020, Joe Biden won all three blue-wall states along with Georgia and Arizona, flipping them against Trump to win the Electoral College 306/232. Thanks to shifts from the 2020 census reapportionment, that narrows up this year to 303/235. A flip of almost any state along with Pennsylvania would come close to handing the election to Trump.