Former President Donald Trump currently leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.3% in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls and by an average of 0.9% in the battleground states. Both results are well within the margins of error of the individual polls included in the averages. Thus, it’s appropriate to describe the current presidential race as neck and neck. Right?
If polls are the only indicator you’re looking at, that might be a fair statement. However, there are other ways to gauge where the candidates stand with the electorate.
Earlier this week, Brit Hume, Fox News chief political analyst, who has covered his fair share of presidential elections, recalled how reporters used to assess a political candidate’s prospects in the “old days,” when polls were either “nonexistent” or “old.” They were forced to rely on other factors.
“You’d rely on how the candidate seemed,” he said. “You relied on their events, how the events seemed to go, how well-organized they seemed to be. You looked at the response of the audience at these events. … You watched for other signs to pick up a sense of the race. And you could pretty well do it. … There are upsets in every election cycle, but you could get a sense of it.”
Hume is correct. Trump has momentum in this race, and it has come at the best time possible. He is riding high after a string of public relations wins. Trump’s brief stint as a fry cook at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s was a stroke of genius. His three-hour interview with top podcast host Joe Rogan was viewed by tens of millions of voters. He made liberal heads explode with his tour de force at Madison Square Garden last Sunday. He leveled Biden and Harris with his garbage truck stunt. The chef’s kiss was his message: “You can’t lead America if you don’t love Americans.”
Conversely, Harris has stumbled repeatedly. When her campaign’s media-created momentum stalled in early October, she embarked upon a media blitz. Her performances ranged from lackluster to disastrous. Particularly damaging were her interviews with 60 Minutes host Bill Whitaker and Fox News’s Bret Baier, who had the temerity to ask her tough questions.