All eyes will naturally be on the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday, but no matter who wins that contest, there are many other choices voters will make that will shape the direction of the country.
Control of the Senate is up for grabs, with Democrats holding only a slim majority with 51 seats to the Republicans’ 49. In West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), who caucuses with the Democrats, is retiring, and Republican Gov. Jim Justice is almost certain to replace him. Republicans would then need only one more seat to control the chamber, and it appears they will get it in Montana, where incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) trails challenger Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a Republican, by almost 7 points in the RealClearPolitics poll average.
Republicans have a strong chance of gaining even more in the Senate by winning at least some close races in Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Harris’s blue wall holds in the Midwest and she wins the White House, a 51-49 Republican Senate is likely. If Trump sweeps those states, along with a Nevada race in which Republican early voting looks strong, the Republican majority could be as strong as 56-44. A President Trump would then only need four centrist Democratic votes for bipartisan victories on issues such as border security and permitting reform.
In the House, Republicans have a slim eight-seat, 220-212 majority that has made life difficult for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). A Harris win would probably mean House Democrats find the votes in the suburban California and New York districts needed to allow Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to take over as speaker and wield the gavel. A Trump win, however, would almost assuredly mean Republicans would add to their margins in the House.
Moving away from the federal government, four states and the District of Columbia are voting on measures that would either create or repeal ranked choice voting systems for state and federal offices. As we have written before, ranked choice voting is a subversion of democracy that undermines the principle of “one person, one vote” by giving some people more than one vote in an election. Its record where it has been tried, particularly in California, has produced victories for inferior candidates who are now under federal investigation, recall, or both, as is the case with Oakland’s mayor.
Six states have already voted to ban noncitizens from voting, and eight states are looking to join them this year, including Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. One might think forbidding noncitizens from voting would be supported unanimously, but California, Maryland, and Vermont all let noncitizens vote in state and local elections, a recipe for abuses at the federal level. All the noncitizen voting ballot measures are expected to pass, and it is a matter Trump and a Republican Congress should address at the federal level should they win on Nov. 5.
Moving to crime, Florida, unfortunately, looks likely to legalize marijuana, which would be a huge mistake as legalization has not delivered on promised benefits in states where marijuana has already been legalized, such as California, Colorado, and Oregon. Studies show that marijuana is far more harmful and addictive than previously thought. Even where it has been legalized, it has fostered black markets, increased police work, and has not reduced crime.
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Perhaps most importantly, California is starting to move away from its decadelong and ill-advised experiment with the decriminalization of most property offenses. Ten years after passing Proposition 47, which reduced penalties for theft and shoplifting, a coalition of sheriffs and retailers has placed Proposition 36 on the ballot, which would bring back stiff penalties. The George Soros-funded district attorney in Los Angeles, George Gascon, is set to lose by 30 points to a Republican prosecutor, while Oakland’s soft-on-crime district attorney is also on track to lose her recall election.
The move by Florida toward marijuana legalization is concerning, but on noncitizen voting and crime, the rest of the nation seems to be moving in the right direction, irrespective of what happens in the presidential contest.