Virginia could be one of the states most affected by President Donald Trump’s moves to shrink the federal workforce — and this year’s race for governor will test whether the slashing approach is a political loser, winner or nonissue in a state home to more than 340,000 federal workers, according to census data.
Already, there are signs of how the disruption could shape the state’s political climate: NBC News spoke with more than a dozen voters around the state who participated in past NBC News polls and said they were not strongly aligned with either party. All were aware of the ongoing federal layoffs, with some expressing deep concern about the effect on Virginia workers and those receiving federal benefits, though most were not yet tuned into the governor’s race.
Meanwhile, in Arlington, a man named Matthew who was not comfortable sharing his last name, told NBC News on Tuesday that he expects the recent layoffs of federal workers to factor into his 2025 vote for governor — as the self-described political independent attended his first Democratic Party event, a week after losing his own federal government job. He was one of more than 300 Virginians who packed the Arlington library auditorium Tuesday night for a county party town hall on the recent federal layoffs.
“I didn’t expect the Republicans to have anything,” Matthew said, later adding, “They’re all supportive of what’s going on right now, right?”
As one of two states that holds races for governor the year after a presidential election, Virginia has long been seen as an early-warning indicator in national politics, highlighting trends that drive the next year’s congressional campaigns, as well as the remainder of a president’s term. In 2025, that means measuring reaction to the Trump administration and its biggest, most impactful moves, including the government cuts spearheaded by Trump adviser Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, and his Department of Government Efficiency.
Matthew noted the upcoming governor’s race, saying he’s received more information about the layoffs from the Democratic candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, than the state’s Republican leaders, including GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who cannot run for re-election because of term limits.