A report from the Institute for Science and International Security warns that Iran has enough weapons-grade uranium to potentially produce its first nuclear weapon within a week and a total of six bombs within a month. The conflict in the Middle East, particularly with Hamas’s war against Israel, is increasing the likelihood of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons.
The report notes that the volatile situation in the region provides Iran with an opportunity and internal justification for building nuclear weapons, while resources to detect and deter Iran are stretched thin. The Institute for Science and International Security states that Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities are currently more dangerous than ever, and its relations with the West are at a low point.
This marks the “first time” the institute has issued such a determination since it began reporting on the Iranian nuclear program’s threat level in October 2022.
The total threat score for Iran has increased from 140 out of 180 in May 2023 to 151 this year. The ongoing conflict and U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets in the Middle East add to the urgency, potentially pushing Tehran to expedite its efforts to become a nuclear-armed power.
The report highlights Iran’s progress in developing sensitive nuclear capabilities, emphasizing an increase in nuclear weaponization efforts beyond breakout. Iran’s ability to “break out and produce enough weapon-grade enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon in a week” using its 60 percent enriched uranium is a significant concern.
The report suggests that Iran’s lack of cooperation with international nuclear inspectors, including limited access to contested enrichment sites, compounds the problem. The level of obfuscation has reportedly increased in the past year, raising additional challenges in monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities.