With less than two weeks until Election Day, the publicly available data continues to suggest a closer race than any election I’ve covered.
Although our poll averages show Donald Trump winning by 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 226 electoral votes, this doesn’t tell the full story. In the key battleground states, four of Trump’s leads are under a single decimal point: As of this writing, 0.8% in Pennsylvania, 0.4% in North Carolina, 0.4% in Wisconsin, and 0.9% in Michigan. Another three races show a lead of fewer than three points: Michigan (1.2), Arizona (1.8), and Georgia (2.5). It wouldn’t take a significant poll error for Harris to win.