NATE SILVER: Biden Should Quit If He Can’t Run ‘Normal Re-Election Campaign’

In a recent analysis on his Substack, Nate Silver, a prominent political commentator and the mind behind the election forecast website FiveThirtyEight, expressed concerns about President Joe Biden’s path to a second term. Once considered a likely candidate to win reelection, Biden’s current standings suggest he might now be facing an uphill battle.

Silver pointed out that, in contrast to a year ago when Biden seemed to be a “reasonably clear favorite,” his position has since shifted. Contributing factors to this change include the President’s dwindling approval ratings and a scarcity of viable strategies that could potentially bolster his political standing.

Special attention was given to the public’s perception of President Biden’s age and capabilities, which Silver implies could be influencing public opinion. Furthermore, Silver elaborated on the methods by which Biden might enhance his reelection campaign, emphasizing the necessity for a “normal” campaign strategy that could involve accepting more interview requests and engaging in additional public events to curate a more favorable image.

Wrote Silver:

Personally, I crossed the rubicon in November, concluding that Biden should stand down if he wasn’t going to be able to run a normal reelection campaign — meaning, things like conduct a Super Bowl interview. Yes, it’s a huge risk and, yes, Biden can still win. But he’s losing now and there’s no plan to fix the problems other than hoping that the polls are wrong or that voters look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it. Neither is so implausible and it is likely to be a close race.

But even the most optimistic Democrats, if you read between the lines, are really arguing that Democrats could win despite Biden and not because of him. Biden is probably a below replacement-level candidate at this point because Americans have a lot of extremely rational concerns about the prospect of a Commander-in-Chief would be 86 years old by the end of his second term.

It is entirely reasonable to see this as disqualifying. The fact that Trump also has a number of disqualifying features is not a good reason to nominate Biden. It is a reason for Democrats to be the adults in the room and acknowledge that someone who can’t sit through a Super Bowl interview isn’t someone the public can trust to have the physical and mental stamina to handle an international crisis, terrorist attack or some other unforeseen threat when he’ll be in his mid-80s.