Polling Guru Nate Silver Says Trump Has 58.2% Chance Of Winning

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have surged in the last month while Vice President Kamala Harris has struggled to find “a 2nd gear,” according to polling guru Nate Silver.

The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College in November compared to Harris’ 41.6% chance.

“Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote in his latest election forecast bulletin. “And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has risen to almost 18 percent.”

Silver’s model predicts that Harris has a 58.9% chance of winning the national popular vote — which has no bearing on the winner of the race — but that Trump will rack up 274 Electoral College votes, topping the vice president’s 263 estimated Electoral College total.

“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what,” Silver noted on X.

The pollster also argued that Harris tapping Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate over swing-state Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shaprio, as well as keeping most of President Biden’s campaign team in place, may have been missteps.

“Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” he continued.

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