In the high-stakes race for California’s U.S. Senate seat, the Republican party seems to have hit a snag. Steve Garvey, a former Los Angeles Dodgers star and GOP candidate, is facing difficulties garnering the unified Republican backing he needs. This division amongst GOP supporters has opened a window for Democratic hopeful, Rep. Katie Porter, potentially easing her path to clinch the much-coveted second spot, as revealed by recent polling data.
The poll, which political insiders from POLITICO have had exclusive insight into, was carried out by academic experts from the University of Southern California, California State University, Long Beach, and California Polytechnic State University, Pomona. Their findings place Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff at the forefront of the primary race, enjoying a substantial 25 percent backing from likely voters as the March 5 primary looms.
The crux of the primary skirmish now seemingly pivots on the fierce contest for second place, with Porter and Garvey each gripping tightly to their 15 percent share of prospective voters. The outcomes of California’s top-two primary will be pivotal, dictating the duo that moves on to the November general election — and hence, whether Schiff sails into a traditional Democrat vs. Republican showdown or grapples with a costly same-party rift.
Despite earlier polls ushering Garvey into that challenger seat, the latest figures from university research indicate that his campaign might be losing steam as the election draws near, notably among a significant block — 37 percent — of undecided Republican voters. Should this trend hold, it could drastically impact the dynamic of the upcoming electoral bout.
Christian Grose, the head pollster and a USC professor of political science, speculates, “Porter might just barely scrape through.” Grose posits that Garvey’s reputation alone should set him far ahead; instead, his campaign appears to falter, performing subpar when benchmarked against typical GOP expectations.
Compounding Garvey’s challenges, the poll was conducted in the aftermath of what many considered a faltering appearance at the initial Senate debate. As Garvey wavers on committing his support again to former President Donald Trump, opponents like Porter and Schiff have not missed the opportunity to cast doubt on his stance — criticism that may well resonate with the electorate as they soon head to the polls.