The risk of developing dementia may be much higher than previously thought, a study published Monday in the journal Nature Medicine has found.
Older studies estimated that about 14% of men and 23% of women would develop dementia in their lifetimes. The new study puts that estimate higher, at around 42% for both men and women.
“I think this is going to be a very important study, and I think it is going to change the way we look at dementia,” said Dr. Ted Huey, director of the memory and aging program at Butler Hospital in Rhode Island, who wasn’t involved with the research.
More than anything, the increase in both risk and the number of people living with dementia — which the researchers estimated will double by 2060 — is the result of people living longer than previous generations, said study leader Dr. Josef Coresh, director of the Optimal Aging Institute at the NYU Grossman School of Medicine.
“Just the fact that the population is going to get older will mean the number of dementia cases will double overall,” Coresh said. Among Black Americans, for whom the risk is greater, the number of cases is expected to triple, he said.
About 10% Americans over age 65 have been diagnosed with dementia, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.