Former President Donald Trump began surging on betting sites around 7:30 p.m. EST, turning around a shrinking lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting odds after the first major polls closed, while survey-based prediction models indicated the candidates were locked in a dead heat heading into Election Day.
Polymarket: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site still leaned toward Trump after the first closures, giving him 67% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 34% as of about 7:50 p.m. EST.
Kalshi: The New York-based prediction platform favors Trump by a 63% to 37% margin, a major shift from Saturday, when Harris briefly led on the site; unlike Polymarket, Kalshi legally operates in the U.S., as do rival PredictIt and brokerages Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
PredictIt: The site tilting most strongly toward Harris still favored Trump at 7:50 p.m., with PredictIt pricing at 59% to 41% for Trump.
Robinhood: The retail trading giant is the newest major entrant into election betting and gives Trump about a 68% win probability compared to 35% for his Democratic opponent.
Interactive Brokers: The digital brokerage run by billionaire Thomas Peterffy offers election betting via its subsidiary ForecastEx, which prices in around 68% odds for Trump and 34% for Harris.
Betfair and Smarkets: The London-based sites are not open to Americans, but both assign similar chances of a Trump win, with Betfair favoring the Republican by a 67% to 34% margin and Smarkets by a 66% to 34% tilt.