For negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to succeed, both countries must come to the negotiating table prepared to make hard concessions.
Where Ukraine has shown openness to that necessity, Russia continues with maximalist demands as a price for peace. These demands include the absorption of all Ukrainian territory that Russia has seized, long-term agreements by Ukraine to limit its relationship with the West, and the rapid removal of all sanctions. Russia also continues to oppose an international peacekeeping force that would be required to defend postwar borders and deter a future Russian invasion. President Donald Trump needs to alter Russia’s perspective by making Russian President Vladimir Putin see the adverse consequences of recalcitrance.
The key is to follow through on his threat to impose new sanctions against Russia’s energy industry. The moment is ripe for action. As Reuters reports, Russian oil exports to China and India are falling because of escalating U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s tanker fleet. Trump now has an unprecedented opportunity to exploit this in the interest of peace.
Trump recognizes his leverage. Just two days after taking office, he posted a call on social media for Putin to “STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.”
The key line here is “and various other participating countries.” As the Washington Examiner reported last week, “That’s a clear reference to what are known as secondary sanctions. In this case, Trump is threatening to sanction nations such as China, India, and Turkey to provide Russia with crucial export markets even as Western sanctions have greatly reduced its total exports. Until now, the U.S. has generally held off imposing those sanctions. But changing that would greatly increase pressure on Russia’s creaking economy. Contrary to claims that Russia has thrived amid Western sanctions, its currency is collapsing, its inflation rate is soaring, and its diversion of human and industrial capital to its war machine has greatly weakened a private sector that was fragile even before the February 2022 start of the war.”
Since reentering the Oval Office, Trump has also called on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to increase Saudi oil output to force down prices. The lower oil prices go, the less incentive there is to buy Russian oil. If Trump wants to really turn the negotiating screws on Putin, he must take specific action.
First, he should replicate his first-term sanctions on Germany’s Nord Stream II gas pipeline and introduce sanctions on Turkey’s TurkStream pipeline. Funneling Russian gas under the Black Sea, the new pipeline is the only Russian energy export system into Europe still operating. It is absurd that Turkey, a NATO ally, should undercut Trump’s peace ambitions by funding Russia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan only understands strength. Trump should underline the strength of his conviction about getting Putin to the negotiating table. Turkey’s economy is fragile and its need for a rapprochement with America in relation to Russia is significant. Erdogan can be made to yield.
Similarly, while India has been given a grace period until the end of February to divest itself of sanctioned Russian energy entities, Trump should ensure that sanctions are imposed even if Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi pushes him to waive them longer. But the president should go further. He should make clear to India and China that all purchases of Russian energy exports, whether made openly or via Russia’s shadow smuggling fleet, will lead to U.S. sanctions on the buyer.
Trump should make clear that this action isn’t about causing ruptures to important bilateral relationships but about getting Putin to talk peace. This matters because if India and, especially, China start feeling economic pain and international diplomatic discord because of their continued enablement of Putin’s war machine, they’ll have a greater incentive to get Russia to negotiate in good faith.
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Trump has a major strategic and historic opportunity to end a terrible war and bring long-term peace, Russia’s return to the international community of nations, and Ukraine’s sovereign democratic viability. But the president will be able to accomplish that objective only by doing abroad what he has done at home — take decisive action.
Trump must act boldly, quickly, and aggressively to make clear to Putin that his failure to enter serious negotiations will result in the implosion of his economy.