Trump Sees Quick Win

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign team is confident that he will clinch the Republican presidential nomination by March 19. According to the team’s projections, Trump is on track to win 1,478 delegates by then, based on a mix of public and internal polls. This would be more than enough delegates needed to secure the nomination at the Republican National Convention in July.

Trump holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary, with a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll showing that 61% of self-identified Republicans would vote for him in the primary. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley are Trump’s closest rivals, but they are each backed by only 11% of self-identified Republicans.

The nominating process kicks off in Iowa on January 15, followed by New Hampshire’s primary eight days later. Trump’s campaign team projects that he will win 19 of Iowa’s 40 delegates. By the end of March 19, 36 states and territories will have held their primary contests, including 16 on March 5, which is known as “Super Tuesday.”

The Trump campaign official who provided the projection cautions that it is an estimate, particularly since there has been no reliable polling yet in some of the states and territories in play. However, even in a bullish scenario, the Trump campaign believes it could mathematically wrap up the nomination as early as March 12, when Republican voters in Washington state, Georgia, and several other states will go to the polls.

During the last competitive Republican presidential primary in 2016, Trump did not clinch the nomination until late May. However, this time around, he appears to be in a much stronger position. As the field consolidates, DeSantis and Haley may pose a challenge to Trump, but they have a long way to go to catch up to his lead.