President Donald Trump said he wants to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to close in on a peace settlement for the war Russia started by invading Ukraine. However, Trump’s secondary interest is to establish a more effective relationship between the United States and Russia.
Both ambitions are worth pursuing. A more effective U.S.-Russia relationship might lead to new and enforceable nuclear arms agreements. However, ending the war in Ukraine is obviously Trump’s key imperative. How to do so?
The president will not succeed unless he offers Putin more threats than kind inducements. To his credit, Trump has shown that he understands this. In a Tuesday evening social media post, he warned that unless Russia enters serious negotiations “soon,” he will have “no other choice” but to introduce “high levels” of sanctions and tariffs on Moscow. This warning got the Kremlin’s attention and underlined Moscow’s concern that Trump would not follow Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s recommendation to end the war simply by giving Russia whatever it wants.
The next step is for Trump to tell Putin that while he wants a peace Putin can endorse, it must also be a serious peace, which means a peace Ukraine can also accept. That, in turn, means a peace in which Ukraine’s democratic sovereignty is preserved with guardrails against future Russian invasions. Putin must be made to understand that any deal will prevent him from undertaking another invasion five or 10 years from now.
In practice, that means Trump getting Putin to come to negotiations with concessions. Trump will have to tell Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that future U.S. aid depends on his willingness to make concessions, too. Putin must be deterred from making unilateral demands impossible for Ukraine to accept. Focusing on the speed of Russian action, Trump’s pressure should include sanction threats of the kind he already made, and he should also expand aid to Ukraine until Russia compromises for real.
Trump should force allies to join U.S. sanctions on all nations, including India and China, that buy Russian exports. European exporters using Central Asian nations as conduits to evade Western sanctions should face U.S. punishment. This would put Russia under serious economic pressure. Contrary to the delusional claims from some people that the Russian economy is flourishing under sanctions, high inflation rates and a weak currency are contributing to a growing economic crisis. This is aside from Russians’ endemic brain drain, demographic collapse, failing energy infrastructure, and redirection of a sparse innovative private sector in service of the military-industrial complex.
Trump must tell Putin uncomfortable truths, such as that Western peacekeepers will be deployed to Ukraine to uphold a demilitarized zone agreed upon in any final peace deal. The United Kingdom, France, and Eastern European governments are open to supporting such a peacekeeping mission with their forces. That mission would provide both Russia and Ukraine with assurance against border encroachments. However, it would also provide deterrence and, if necessary, defensive military power against any future Russian invasion.
This would make it clear to Putin that adventurism would bring direct conflict with the West. A “trip wire” against future Russian attacks is likely to be a prerequisite of Ukraine’s agreement. It surrendered its nuclear weapons in return for a pledge of Western support in the event of a Russian invasion. After Putin’s 2014 and 2022 invasions, Ukraine has no confidence in defensive pledges. It needs men on the line to preserve the peace.
Where should Trump meet Putin? We would suggest the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh.
Russia wants Budapest, Hungary. However, that option poses two challenges for Trump. First, because of Orban’s deference to Putin, a Budapest summit would allow Russian intelligence services rampant freedom of action. This would threaten the security of the U.S. delegation and risk other Russian antics against U.S. interests. Second, Orban would gang up on Trump by emphasizing Putin’s argument that the only way to end the war in Ukraine is for Trump to cut off aid to Ukraine and defer to Putin’s demands.
Riyadh would be far more suitable. Saudi Arabia has good relations with both the United States and Russia, but security cooperation only with Washington. Secondly, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, would see hosting the summit as an honor and signal of serious U.S. interest in bolstering relations. The intersection of pride and respect is crucial in Sunni Arab culture.
The U.S. has a significant strategic interest in bolstering relations with Saudi Arabia.
Its murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi on bin Salman’s orders was disgraceful, and bin Salman has continued to detain American allies and perceived political rivals. He even cultivates China and Russia. However, the crown prince wants better U.S. relations and a peace agreement with Israel. Bin Salman’s intensive effort to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil exports, expand domestic tourism, sports, and cultural links with the West, and strengthen basic human rights for his citizens, especially women, all deserve American respect and praise.
Saudi Arabia plays an outsize economic, political, and security role in the Middle East. Bin Salman’s tens of billions of dollars a year in investments benefit the U.S. economy. Unless bin Salman succeeds, Islamic extremists will have a young population at the heart of Islam from which to create a new ISIS-style terrorist superstate. It is better that Trump make bin Salman his partner and friend than force him into the hands of Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, or Salafi jihadists.
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Ukraine and Saudi Arabia might seem worlds apart, but their politics are interconnected.
Trump wants to get a deal on Ukraine and needs to meet Putin to get it done. By meeting Putin in Riyadh and hanging tough, the president can boost his chances of negotiating a historic peace and do so while repairing relations with a historic and important U.S. ally.