In recent months, Russia has been struck by a series of mysterious explosions at military bases, assassinations, and even train derailments. The country has experienced a mounting stream of sabotage and covert killings, which it has attributed to Ukraine. In some cases, Kyiv has taken credit for the attacks.
Ukraine has been accused by Russia of orchestrating these attacks as a tactic to exert pressure on the Kremlin and disrupt their supply lines. With a stalemate on the battlefield and uncertainty about the long-term prospects for Western military aid, sabotage is increasingly seen as a crucial tactic against its larger foe.
To this end, Western officials, former U.S. intelligence officers, and regional analysts predict that Ukraine will likely ramp up its drone strikes and sabotage in the new year, in an effort to keep the pressure on Russia.
According to a Western official, “I think we’re going to see more of those kind of operations.” While the audacious sabotage campaign has initially caused concern in the Biden administration and the international community, Ukraine has pledged not to use U.S.-made weapons inside Russia, and the U.S. officials have denied any involvement in the attacks.
The sabotage campaign carries the risk of prompting Moscow to escalate the war beyond the borders of Ukraine. The Biden administration is particularly worried about operations that endanger civilians and could lead to a broader conflict. U.S. officials have made it clear that Washington has had no role in the attacks on Russian territory.
Despite these concerns, Ukraine sees sabotage as a vital tactic against Russia, given its military and economic capabilities. The campaign is designed to put pressure on the Kremlin and disrupt their supply lines, thereby chipping away at their advantage.
The situation underscores the deep-seated tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which have simmered since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. The conflict subsequently evolved into a full-blown war in eastern Ukraine. While there have been attempts at diplomatic resolutions, the situation on the ground remains precarious, with the risk of an all-out war on the horizon.