After months of saying a cease-fire and a hostage-release deal was close at hand, senior U.S. officials are now privately acknowledging they don’t expect Israel and Hamas to reach an agreement before the end of President Biden’s term.
The administration won’t stop its pursuit of an agreement, seeing it as the only way to end the war in Gaza and stop a rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. The White House has previously said the warring parties have already agreed to “90 percent” of the deal’s text, so hope remains for a breakthrough. But a number of top-level officials in the White House, State Department, and Pentagon argue the warring parties won’t agree to the current framework.
“No deal is imminent,” one of the U.S. officials said. “I’m not sure it ever gets done.”
Officials cited two main reasons for the pessimism. The ratio of Palestinian prisoners that Israel must release to bring Hamas-held hostages home was a major sticking point—even before the U.S.-designated terrorist group killed six hostages, including an American citizen. And the two-day attack on Hezbollah with explosive pagers and walkie-talkies—followed by Israeli airstrikes—has made the possibility of all-out war much more likely, complicating diplomacy with Hamas.